Global Trade Trends and Economic Forecast: What to Look for in 2018
January 18, 2018: 6:00 PM - 9:00 PM
While the financial markets are booming, the future of US trade policy and leadership is in doubt and uncertain. How will tax reform affect the US and global economies?
450 Cityfront Plaza Drive
NOTE ON PARKING
300 East Illinois Street (AMC Theater-River East Self Park Garage)
$8.00 after 3:00 pm on weekdays and all day Saturday and Sunday for a 12-hour period
Garage: Self Park Facility
Payment: Automated; at pay-stations by cash or credit card or upon exit pay by credit card only.
To receive discounted rate: There is a card validator at the first floor security desk of the Gleacher Center. You will only need to insert your parking card in the validator and the new price will be automatically applied. When you leave the lot you will be charged for the lower $8.00 fee.
Garage is located next to PJ Clarks and below the AMC Theater.
a) When traveling east on Illinois cross over Columbus and enter the Garage on the left (north) side of the street
b) If driving west on Grand (north of Theater), you can enter the garage ½ block before Columbus on the left (south) side of the street.
6:00 PM - 6:30 PM: networking
6:30 PM - 8:00 PM: presentation
8:00 PM - 9:00 PM: cash bar at The Midway Club
NEED FOR CO-CHAIRS
The Leadership Team is expanding. Karl Buschmann, Sheryl Jiang, and Sophia Kholodenko welcome inquiries from Booth alumni who would like to get more involved in running the International Roundtable.
--Programming: identifying interesting topics and securing speakers
--Administration: writing publicity, publicizing events through the University and roundtable email distribution list channels, and coordinating with the Alumni Office
NEW OFFERING: LITERATURE TABLE
Networking is a key benefit of attending. To that end, a table will be made available for literature and handouts. Bring your business cards, brochures, handbills, literature, resumes, and publicity for placement on the table.
CHICAGOLAND INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS EVENTS
The Illinois International Business Calendar is a comprehensive list of events in the Chicago area. For a PDF copy, send an inquiry to firstname.lastname@example.org. The calendar can also be viewed at www.itagc.org.
Karl L. Buschmann, '85
Questions/Concerns/Suggestions for Speakers? Contact the Leadership Team
Karl L. Buschmann
847 310 0412
773 702 0783
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In transition? Looking for a job? Come to the networking session for information exchange.
Mark your calendar for upcoming International Roundtable sessions on the third Thursday of the month in 2018.
While the financial markets are booming, the future of US trade policy and leadership is in doubt and uncertain. How will the tax reform changes affect the trade balance, the dollar, and the US economy? How will the foreign demand for US dollar securities be affected? What should we expect in the renegotiation of bilateral and multilateral trade deals?
During the 2016 presidential campaign Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders advanced the notion that NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) and other 'bad' trade agreements have led to a massive decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs. Indeed, 19 million people worked in U.S. manufacturing in 1979 and now 11 million people do. In 1979 U.S. imports and U.S. exports were more or less offsetting; in 2017 the United States will have an $800 billion trade deficit.
The conventional wisdom is that the U.S. trade deficit has resulted because Americans save too little and spend too much. Dr. Aliber argues that savings in major foreign countries are larger than their domestic investment and this causes a US trade deficit, and that much of the excess foreign savings flow to the United States and induce adjustments which lead to a decline in domestic savings. Like most economists, Dr. Aliber asserts that trade deficits occur primarily because of structural imbalances of investment and savings in the economy, not 'bad' trade deals or incompetent negotiators. Join us as Robert Z. Aliber returns to the international roundtable for another lively and provocative session.
6:00 pm – 6:30 pm networking
6:30 pm – 8:00 pm presentation
8:00 pm – 9:00 pm cash bar at The Midway Club
Robert Z. Aliber
Professor of International Economics and Finance Emeritus , Chicago Booth
Robert Aliber joined the faculty of the Graduate School of Business of the University of Chicago in 1965 and left the classroom in 2004 as professor of International Economics and Finance Emeritus. Aliber has been the Houblon-Norman Fellow at the Bank of England, the Bundesbank professor at the Free University of Berlin, the JPMorgan Prize Fellow at the American Academy of Berlin, and a visiting scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars in Washington. He has been a visiting professor at the Amos Tuck School of Dartmouth College, the London Business School, Williams College, and Brandeis University.
Aliber has written extensively about the prices of currencies, international investment flows, banking issues, the multinational firm, international monetary arrangements, and financial crises. His first book The Future of the Dollar as an International Currency was published in 1966 (Praeger). The Management of the Dollar in International Finance (Princeton University Press) was published in 1967, the first edition of The International Money Game (Basic Books) appeared in 1973, and the seventh edition now titled The New International Money Game (Palgrave) was published in 2012. The Multinational Paradigm (MIT Press) appeared in 1992. Aliber inherited Manias, Panics, and Crashes (Palgrave) from Charles Kindleberger, who had brought out the first four editions; he brought out the fifth edition in 2005 and the sixth edition in 2011. He has also written two different books on personal finance with the title Your Money and Your Life; the first appeared in 1983 (Basic Books) and the second in 2011 (Stanford University Press). He was the co-editor with George P. Shultz of Guidelines, Informal Controls, and the Market Place (University of Chicago Press) in 1967. Aliber has written extensively about the financial crisis in Iceland and co-edited Prelude to the Icelandic Financial Crisis (Palgrave, 2011) with Gyfli Zoega.
His current research focus is the identification of the source of shocks that have led to the large variability in the prices of currencies, bonds, stocks, real estate, and commodities since the early 1970s. These shocks have led to more than forty banking crises, which have been largely overlapping with currency crises. The Great Recession of 2009 resulted from the banking crisis of 2008.